Saturday, October 1, 2011

Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

200 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER NOAA BUOY 41049 SOON...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. OPHELIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BRINGING THE CORE
OF OPHELIA EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF OPHELIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
52 MPH...83 KM/H...WITH A PEAK GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA. NOAA BUOY
41049 RECENTLY REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 25 FEET.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov