Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

800 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.4N 59.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHORTLY AFTER PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT
CANADA BUOY 44141...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
SABLE ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov

Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...CENTER OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 59.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSING
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov

Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...PHILIPPE HANGING TOUGH AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 52.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov

Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

200 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 60.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER
PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov

Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 60.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER
PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

**This information should not be used to make life or death decisions.
For official warnings and statements tune to your local broadcast stations
or visit http://weather.gov